Pentagon: Mil-to-mil ties with China critical

Defense News

08/24/2011

Pentagon: Mil-to-mil ties with China critical

By Kate Brannen and Wendell Minnick - Staff writers

WASHINGTON And TAIPEI — The release of the 2011 annual Pentagon report on Chinese military modernization has become a lightning rod for critics on both sides of the Pacific. Those in Washington say it lacks substance, and those in Beijing complain the report is part of a U.S. conspiracy to contain China.

“Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China” is not the original name of the report. Two years ago, elements in the U.S. government decided to change the name from “Military Power of the People’s Republic of China” in an effort to soften the tone and hopefully not anger China.

In its annual report to Congress, the Pentagon presents a diplomatic but watchful stance toward the country and urges stronger military-to-military relationships between the two powers.

“Although China’s expanding military capabilities can facilitate cooperation in pursuit of shared objectives, they can also increase the risk of misunderstanding and miscalculation,” the report, released Aug. 24, says. “Strengthening our military-to-military relationship is a critical part of our strategy to shape China’s choices as we seek to capitalize on opportunities for cooperation while mitigating risks.”

The 83-page report comes months after its March 1 deadline. It also follows reports that the United States has decided to deny Taiwan’s request for 66 new F-16 C/D fighter jets and instead upgrade Taiwan’s existing fleet of older F-16A/Bs. China had described the sale as a “red line.” The Pentagon report fails to mention the F-16C/D issue.

In January 2010, the Chinese government suspended military-to-military relations with the United States, following U.S. approval of a separate arms sale to Taiwan.

“Although the United States and China maintained working level contact during the nine-month suspension that followed, routine military-to-military exchanges did not resume until the final quarter of 2010,” the report says.

According to the report, the United States would now like to see those relationships strengthened.

“This interaction can facilitate common approaches to challenges and serves as a bridge to build more productive working relationships,” the report says.

The report highlights China’s participation in counterpiracy efforts in the Gulf of Aden as one of its important engagements with foreign militaries.

In the realm of cyberwarfare, the report notes that of the thousands of “intrusions” of computer systems around the world in 2010, some appear to have originated in China. These intrusions were focused on stealing information, according to the report.

“Although this alone is a serious concern, the accesses and skills required for these intrusions are similar to those necessary to conduct computer network attacks,” the report says, noting that network attacks can serve as a force multiplier when combined with more traditional forms of warfare.

In addition to its growing military might, China also holds about 8 percent of U.S. debt, the largest block in foreign hands. A search of the document for the word “debt” came up with no matches.

As for military spending, on March 4, Beijing announced a 12.7 percent increase in its military budget, saying it would spend approximately $91.5 billion. However, the Defense Department estimates that China’s total military-related spending for 2010 was more than $160 billion.

As a point of comparison, in 2011, the U.S. base defense budget was $530 billion, which does not include expenditures on Iraq and Afghanistan. The United States continues to urge China to increase transparency when it comes to its military spending. According to the Pentagon, producing the report cost just over $73,000, compared with a $2.5 million report on the reserve component published April 5.

Beijing’s strategy is illustrated by Deng Xiaoping, who said that China must “hide our capabilities and bide our time.” This statement explains a lot about China’s tendency to ignore transparency requests and to simply wait when an opportunity presents itself.

In the report, an item of major concern is Chinese missile development.

“The [People’s Liberation Army] is acquiring large numbers of highly accurate cruise missiles, many of which have ranges in excess of 185 km.” This includes the DH-10 land-attack cruise missile, the ship-launch YJ-62 anti-ship cruise missile and the Russian SS-N-22 Sunburn supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles.

Much of this information is the same as from previous Pentagon reports.

The report does mention the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, but only three times. The DF-21D has been dubbed by the media as the “aircraft carrier killer,” and billboards in China have shown U.S. Navy aircraft carriers being sunk after being saturated by DF-21D missiles. The Pentagon report does not discuss how this type of missile might reshape naval strategy and doctrine.

In another odd section, the report says that China “may also be developing a new road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile, possibly capable of carrying a multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV).” Then the report drops the issue from discussion. It does not explain the significance of a road-mobile ICBM carrying MIRVed nuclear warheads, or what that potentially could mean to the U.S. West Coast.

China is also developing long-range stealthy aircraft capable of challenging U.S. air power in the region. China has 490 combat aircraft within operational range of Taiwan and has the airfield capabilities to expand that number by hundreds.

The January flight of China’s next-generation fighter prototype, the J-20, highlights China’s ambition to produce a fighter aircraft that incorporates stealth attributes, advanced avionics and super-cruise capable engines over the next several years.

According to the report, China is upgrading its B-6 bomber fleet with a long-range variant that will be armed with a new long-range cruise missile.

In comparison, the Taiwanese are still waiting after five years for the U.S. to release 66 F-16C/D fighter aircraft and an upgrade package for 146 F-16A/B fighters. The report fails to mention Taiwan’s long delayed F-16C/D request. Nor is there any mention of Taiwan’s request for submarines.

What the report really lacks is a future picture of what Taiwan would look like if it became a confederacy of China’s. What would PLA bases on Taiwan mean for Japan, Korea and the United States? What if there was a fighter wing of Su-30s at Haulian Air Base, a submarine base at Suao Port, and a B-6 bomber base at CCK Air Base in Taichung?

How would such developments reshape the strategic map for the Pacific Command? How would Japan deal with the problem of securing oil shipments from the sea lanes of the Malacca Strait and South China Sea? What if China said “no” to Japan?

Taiwan Report Ambiguous On Chinese Threat

Defense News

08/23/2011

Taiwan Report Ambiguous On Chinese Threat

By WENDELL MINNICK

TAIPEI - Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) released the English-language version of its biennial 11th National Defense Report during an Aug. 22 press conference.

Members of the media attending the conference received the report, a comic book version of the report, an 8-inch action figure (a Taiwan Navy officer peering through binoculars) and a 2-inch bobblehead doll of a smiling MND officer.

Like past National Defense reports, ambiguous terms are used to describe China's military threat. China is deploying "various ballistic and cruise missiles." China is developing "anti-access/area denial" capabilities. The Second Artillery Corps "has some capability of attacking aircraft carriers." According to "foreign and domestic think tanks," the Chinese Navy will deploy aircraft carriers by 2020. "Asia-Pacific countries remain suspicious" of China's military modernization efforts.

The report is remarkably weak in comparison with the Pentagon's controversial annual Report on China's Military Modernization, expected to be released this week. The MND report fails to mention that China has about 1,500 short-range ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan. Though Taiwan is working harder not to offend China since Ma Ying-jeou won the Taiwan presidency in 2008, past reports have always been light on details and nonconfrontational.

The report acknowledges that cross-strait ties have improved since 2008, and the signing of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement in June 2010 further enhanced peaceful co-existence, though "its long-term effects on our participation in regional economic integration will require further evaluation."

From a military perspective, China's threat to Taiwan remains "unabated," though the report fails to be explicit.

Of interest, the report does indicate that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has added the People's Armed Police (PAP) to "its array of forces for operations against Taiwan."

The PAP is a paramilitary police force known for its brutality in the autonomous regions of Tibet and Xinjiang Uyghur. The MND report fails to mention PAP's history of thuggery, or what Taiwan's citizenry might expect from PAP forces if they were to occupy the island.

Local defense analysts said they expect widespread systematic rape and pillaging during an invasion in an effort to subjugate the island's residents.

The report outlines the various campaigns PLA could wage against Taiwan, beginning with the likely use of military intimidation, a partial blockade, "firepower strikes" and, finally, invasion.

Military intimidation strategies would include intensifying military activities, adjusting deployment, and using the media to publicize military risks in the Taiwan Strait with the objective of causing a panic in Taiwan.

The PLA also may use its Air Force and Navy to set up partial blockades against Taiwan's key ports and harass the outer islands, which would "weaken the morale of our military and civilians, sever our economic lifeline, deteriorate our living environment, and force us to seek peace agreements."

The PLA's Second Artillery Corps also could launch missiles to destroy command-and-control hubs, political and economic centers and symbolic targets. The attacks would begin slowly and escalate to cripple Taiwan's air defense, sea control and counterstrike systems, "thus shattering our will to fight, forcing us to surrender, or creating a foundation for subsequent strategic operations."

China also might use a "Triphibian Invasion" with the following sequence: preliminary engagement, electromagnetic control operations, air superiority operations, sea control operations and landing. China will "aim for a short battle and a quick victory before foreign forces [the U.S. military] can intervene, thus establishing a political reality that will prevent further intervention."

The report concludes that a Normandy-style invasion of Taiwan is not a likely option. China lacks the amphibious transport craft needed to successfully invade Taiwan. No mention is made in the report of past concerns about a decapitation strategy using special operations forces and fifth column elements to take the capital city of Taipei first.

None of these scenarios are new.

The report makes little mention of Taiwan's dependence on U.S. military support in the event of a war. Taiwan's request for new F-16C/D fighter jets is only mentioned once in the report.

Due to Chinese pressure, the U.S. has delayed the release of F-16C/Ds and submarines since 2006 and 2001, respectively. The U.S. State Department has indicated that a decision on the F-16C/Ds would be made by Oct. 1, which is China's National Day.

The report redefines the word "victory" in terms of fighting a war with China. "Considering the military strength of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, we must use a practical attitude to reconsider the definition of 'victory' if we are to achieve 'resolute defense and credible deterrence.'"

Therefore, the report says the definition of "victory" has been readjusted from "defeating the enemy in a full confrontation" to "striking the enemy halfway across the Taiwan Strait and preventing the enemy from landing and establishing lodgment."

The meaning of "victory" is redefined because "the force structure of the Armed Forces was planned with a focus on gaining a relative advantage in this critical period of war."

The result will allow for a "small and superb, strong and smart" force to achieve "resolute defense," but also avoid engaging in an "armaments race" with China, which might influence Taiwan's overall competitiveness.

Taiwan's Defense Show in Decline; F-16s in Limbo

Defense News

08/18/2011

Taiwan's Defense Show in Decline; F-16s in Limbo

By WENDELL MINNICK

TAIPEI - The biennial Taipei Aerospace & Defense Technology Exhibition (TADTE), which ran Aug. 11-14, was forced to share floor space with a comic book convention at the World Trade Center here. If that was not humiliating enough, several mainland Chinese businessmen were seen perusing booths. Who and what they were about remain a mystery.

Those familiar with the vibrancy of the Singapore Air Show might be surprised to learn that Taiwan spends about $2 billion more than Singapore on defense annually, yet there was no evidence of that at TADTE this year.

The show has seen steady declines over the past decade. Only six U.S. defense companies exhibited this year: ITT, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, Pratt & Whitney and Sikorsky Aircraft. Missing were BAE Systems, Bell Helicopter, Boeing, General Dynamics, L-3 Communications, Rockwell Collins, Thales and U.S. Ordnance, all of which traditionally have had booths.

Part of the lack of interest could be attributed to the fact that Taiwan's shopping list for new arms has been filled for the near term and there are few, if any, items left to procure. The military is struggling to pay for $16.5 billion in new U.S. arms released since 2007, including Patriot PAC-3 ballistic missile defense systems, P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft, AH-64D Apache attack helicopters and UH-60M Black Hawk utility helicopters.

Added to procurement costs are expensive reform programs. The Ministry of National Defense (MND) is implementing a streamlining and modernization program that will reduce troop strength from 275,000 to 215,000 within the next five to 10 years.

Despite the MND's financial struggles, a U.S. Department of Defense delegation was in Taiwan during TADTE to finalize price and availability options for a $4.2 billion upgrade package for 146 F-16A/B fighter jets.

Sources at TADTE said the midlife upgrade package has been renamed a "retrofit" to reduce complaints from China. To further placate China, the F-16A/B retrofit will be released incrementally rather than as a total package under the U.S. Foreign Military Sales program.

The only serious competition at TADTE was between Northrop Grumman and Raytheon to supply the active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar for the F-16A/B retrofit requirement. Northrop's Scalable Agile Beam Radar and the Raytheon Advanced Combat Radar are vying to replace the current APG-66(V)3 mechanical radar.

If the U.S. government does not release an AESA radar for Taiwan, TADTE sources indicate that the Northrop APG-68(V)9 mechanical radar would be offered as a substitute.

Taiwan is awaiting a final decision by the U.S. on a deal for 66 F-16C/D fighters for $8 billion, and a 2001 offer for eight diesel submarines estimated at more than $10 billion.

TADTE participants said the U.S. plans to release the F-16A/B retrofit with the AESA radar, but not new F-16C/D fighters.

A senior Taiwan MND official said he was "disappointed" by U.S. plans to deny Taiwan the new fighters.

But senior MND and U.S. government officials are denying the report. MND officials insist the U.S. Defense Department delegation did not inform Taiwan of a final decision on the F-16C/Ds, and hope remains for a positive release.

Since 2006, the U.S. has repeatedly denied Taiwan's request for F-16C/D fighters to placate China. In July, the U.S. State Department indicated a final decision on the F-16 issue would be made before Oct. 1.

News of the DoD delegation's visit comes at an awkward time for the administration of President Barack Obama. U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden arrived in Beijing on Aug. 17 to discuss economic and political issues. China has insisted the U.S. end all arms sales to Taiwan, and has threatened to invade the island should it continue to refuse unification.

MND PAVILION

During TADTE, the MND displayed a variety of new weapons and equipment. The most startling were exhibits by the military-run Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology (CSIST).

CSIST displayed the new Hsiung Feng 3 (Brave Wind 3) supersonic anti-ship missile. Though the missile had been displayed at TADTE 2009, this is the first time it was described as an "aircraft carrier killer," with a mural depicting three HF-3 missiles sinking China's new aircraft carrier, the Varyag.

China began sea trials for the Varyag on Aug. 10, the same day the HF-3 display was unveiled to the media. The Taiwan Navy has outfitted two Perry-class frigates, the 1101 Cheng Kung and 1103 Cheng Ho, with the HF-3.

CSIST also displayed models of two new unmanned aerial combat vehicle (UACV) concepts. CSIST officials did not provide any information about the UACV models, but one appeared similar to the General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper, while the other had a diamond-shaped fuselage similar to the Boeing X-45.

A CSIST animated demonstration video showed three X-45-like UACVs flying alongside an F-16 on a mission to attack a Chinese air base. The video also demonstrated how the Reaper-like UACV could be used to attack ground-based radar facilities in China.

The 202nd Arsenal displayed a new 105mm low-recoil turret being developed for the eight-wheeled Cloud Leopard armored vehicle. One Cloud Leopard on display was equipped with a 40mm grenade launcher. Full-rate production has begun, and the military has a requirement for 300 vehicles.

U.S. To Deny Taiwan New Jets

Defense News

08/15/2011

U.S. To Deny Taiwan New Jets

Offers AESA Radar in Upgrade for Older F-16s

By WENDELL MINNICK 

TAIPEI — Bowing to Chinese pressure, the U.S. will deny Taiwan’s request for 66 new F-16C/D fighter aircraft, a Taiwan Ministry of National Defense (MND) official said.



“We are so disappointed in the United States,” he said.



A U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) delegation arrived here last week to deliver the news and offer instead a retrofit package for older F-16A/Bs that includes an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar.



The visit coincided with the biennial Taipei Aerospace and Defense Technology Exhibition (TADTE), held here Aug. 11-14.



“The U.S. Pentagon is here explaining what is in the upgrade package,” a U.S. defense industry source said at TADTE. “They are going to split the baby: no C/Ds, but the A/B upgrade is going forward.” Sources said an official announcement of the decision is expected by month’s end.



But an official at the American
Institute in Taiwan (AIT), the de facto U.S. Embassy, said “no decisions have been made,” while DoD officials declined to comment on their delegation’s mission.

The proposed upgrade package would make the 146 Taiwanese F-16A/Bs among the most capable variants of the aircraft, perhaps second only to the APG-80 AESA-equipped F-16E/Fs flown by the United Arab Emirates.

Originally requested by Taipei in 2009, the package would cost $4.2 billion, sources at TADTE said.

The new gear would include an AESA radar, likely either Northrop Grumman’s Scalable Agile Beam Radar or the Raytheon Advanced Combat Radar, to replace the planes’ current APG-66(V)3 radar.

Either one would be an improvement on the Northrop APG-68(V)9 mechanical radar once contemplated for Taiwan’s upgrade package. The switch is meant to soften the blow of denying new planes to Taipei, a Lockheed Martin source said.

A decision between the two AESA candidates could foreshadow the U.S. Air Force’s own choice as it prepares to upgrade its fleet of F-16s. The upgrade package will also improve the planes’ Raytheon ALQ-184(V)7 electronic countermeasures pod by adding the capacity to intercept and save hostile radar transmissions, then use the same frequency to jam them.

However, ITT is offering the ALQ-211 Advanced Integrated Defensive Electronic Warfare Suite pod as an alternative.

ITT is also offering the BRU-57/A Smart Twin Store Carrier, which doubles the number of bombs an F-16 can carry, an ITT source said.

The package would also replace the AIM-9P/M Sidewinder air-to-air missile with the new AIM-9X; fit the planes to carry enhanced GBU-12 Paveway II laser-guided bombs; and add a digital radar warning receiver, helmet-mounted cueing system and center pedestal display.

The package will not include new engines to better handle the additional weight and electrical draw, though there could be an upgrade to bring the existing Pratt & Whitney F100-PW-220 to the PW-220E standard. The upgrade would swap out obsolete parts for newer ones, but wouldn't offer any additional performance.

Lockheed Martin will be working with Taiwan’s state-run Aerospace Industrial Development Corp. (AIDC) to integrate the new gear on the jets.

“Changing a fighter’s major sensor should not be taken lightly. It is more than electrical capacity. It is the integration of sensors, weapons, displays, etc., that make a fighter aircraft effective,” Lockheed spokeswoman Laura Siebert said.

Consequences

Siebert said the failure to release F-16C/Ds will weaken Lockheed Martin’s plans to extend the production line for the fighter.

“While Congress has been notified of Oman and Iraq’s desire for F-16s, the Taiwan order for 66 aircraft is very important to the long-term viability of the F-16 production to include the U.S. Air Force, Lockheed Martin and the thousands of suppliers throughout the U.S.,” she said.

More than a few TADTE attendees said the Obama administration might reverse the decision as the 2012 presidential election approaches and political pressure for new jobs builds.

A June report by the Perryman Group, a Texas-based economic and financial analysis firm, estimated that Taiwan’s F-16C/D program would create more than 16,000 jobs and almost $768 million in U.S. federal tax revenue. Much of that tax revenue and new jobs would go to election battleground states: California, Connecticut, Florida, Maryland, Ohio, Texas and Utah.

But China holds about 8 percent of U.S. debt, the largest block in foreign hands.

As one TADTE attendee said, “Beijing’s Kung Fu is better than Washington’s.” The denial of the new jets will likely lead

AIDC officials to ask the government to expand upgrade plans for Taiwan’s 126 Indigenous Defense Fighters, of which 71 are currently slated for upgrades.

The company has also been pushing Taiwan’s Air Force to allocate funds for full rate production of the IDF C/D Goshawk, which features improved range and weapons payload.

Background

In July, the U.S. State Department indicated a final decision on the F-16 issue would be made by Oct. 1. Since 2006, the U.S. has repeatedly denied Taiwan’s request for 66 F-16C/D Block 50/52s, a prospective sale estimated at more than $8 billion.

The planes would replace 60 F-5 Tigers and 60 Mirage 2000-5s due for retirement within five to 10 years.

China has called the sale a “red line.” A recent editorial in the state-controlled People’s Daily called for the use of a “financial weapon” against the U.S. if new F-16s were released.

The U.S. decision comes as a blow to the self-ruled island’s effort to counter China’s growing military, whose first aircraft carrier began sea trials last week, and therefore to its independence.

There are fears that losing Taiwan could spell the end of U.S. power projection in the region. Losing Taiwan would “change everything from the operational arch perspective to the posture of Japan and the U.S.” in the region, said Raytheon’s Asia president, Walter Doran, a retired admiral who once commanded the U.S. Pacific Fleet.

Dave Majumdar contributed to this report from Washington.