Defense News
08/29/2011
DoD China
Report Draws Fire
By KATE BRANNEN and WENDELL MINNICK
WASHINGTON and TAIPEI — The
release of the 2011 annual Pentagon report on Chinese military modernization,
criticized by some in Washington for lacking substance and some in China as
falsely portraying a Chinese threat, highlights the importance of
military-to-military ties and greater interaction.
“Look at it like
fondue. The meat is there, but it has to be cooked,” said Mark Stokes, former
senior country director for China and Taiwan in the office of the U.S.
assistant defense secretary.
“Military and
Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China” is not the
original name of the report. Two years ago, elements in the U.S. government
decided to change the name from “Military Power of the People’s Republic of
China” in an effort to soften the tone and placate China.
Stokes said that
the report is actually getting “better with each passing year in terms of style
and format,” but ultimately it is an official Pentagon report and “reflects
consensus” with “only marginal changes from previous years.”
In its annual
report to Congress, released Aug. 24, only a week after U.S. Vice President Joe
Biden visited Beijing to explain why the U.S. would not default on its debt,
the Pentagon presents a diplomatic but watchful stance toward the country and
urges stronger military-to-military relationships between the two powers.
“Although China’s
expanding military capabilities can facilitate cooperation in pursuit of shared
objectives, they can also increase the risk of misunderstanding and
miscalculation,” the report says.
“Strengthening our
military-tomilitary relationship is a critical part of our strategy to shape
China’s choices as we seek to capitalize on opportunities for cooperation while
mitigating risks.”
However, observers
in Taipei argue better military cooperation between China and the U.S. could
leave Taiwan feeling abandoned. The U.S. is expected to deny Taiwan’s request
for new F-16C/D fighters in September. The implication of denying new fighter
aircraft to Taiwan while a Pentagon report points to rapid militarization of
China suggests a Jekyll-Hyde approach to dealing with a rising China.
Many in Washington
argue that ties between China and Taiwan have improved to the point that new
F-16s would disrupt a potential cross-Strait peace accord. However,
cross-Strait relations also have security implications for the U.S., said Lin
Cheng-yi, research fellow at Academia Sinica, Taipei.
“With tensions
between China and Taiwan declining, China has become more active in claiming
sovereignty over the disputed islands in the East China Sea and South China
Sea,” Lin said. “With the disappearance of the Taiwan buffer, Taiwan’s
neighboring countries now have to deal with China directly and with the
possibility of seeing a less sympathetic Taiwan.”
As cross-Strait
ties improve and the risk of war between China and Taiwan fades, the question
now facing the U.S. is whether or not “Taiwan’s creeping unification might also
challenge the future stability of the region,” he said.
But China’s state
news agency accused the U.S. of “exaggerating” the threat posed by its
military, according to Agence France-Presse.
Xinhua News Agency
said many people in China found it odd that the United States, which spends far
more on its military than any other country in the world, should highlight
Chinese expenditure.
“The report ...
exaggerated the threat incurred by China’s military development in 2010 to the
Asia-Pacific region,” Xinhua said in a commentary. “For many in China, it is
weird that the Pentagon, whose expenditures reached nearly $700 billion and
accounted for more than an appalling 40 percent of the world’s total in 2010,
routinely points its finger at China.”
The 83-page
Pentagon report comes months after its March 1 deadline. The report fails to
mention the F-16C/D issue.
“There have been
no decisions made on arms sales to Taiwan, but as I said before, this is an
issue that we continue to work and, in my office, we work this question on a
daily basis,” Michael Schiffer, deputy assistant secretary of defense for East
Asia, said at a press briefing.
In January 2010,
the Chinese government suspended militaryto-military relations with the United
States, following U.S. approval of a $6.4 billion arms sale to Taiwan.
“Although the
United States and China maintained working level contact during the nine-month
suspension that followed, routine military-to-military exchanges did not resume
until the final quarter of 2010,” the report says.
According to the
report, the United States would now like to see those relationships
strengthened.
“This interaction
can facilitate common approaches to challenges and serves as a bridge to build
more productive working relationships,” the report says.
The report
highlights China’s participation in counterpiracy efforts in the Gulf of Aden
as one of its important engagements with foreign militaries.
No Mention of Debt
In addition to its
growing military might, China also holds about 8 percent of U.S. debt, the
largest block in foreign hands. The report contains no discussion of the
security implications for the United States of China holding so much of its
debt.
Those sorts of
issues are not included because they are outside of the report’s congressional
mandate and “frankly outside the scope or the expertise of the Department of
Defense,” Schiffer said.
“This is obviously
an extraordinarily complex economic relationship that we have with China. And I
know that that’s receiving a lot of extraordinarily high-level attention from
U.S. and Chinese leadership,” he said, citing Biden’s recent trip to the
country.
As for military
spending, on March 4, Beijing announced a 12.7 percent increase in its military
budget, saying it would spend approximately $91.5 billion. However, the
Pentagon estimates that China’s total military-related spending for 2010 was
more than $160 billion.
The United States
continues to urge China to increase transparency when it comes to its military
spending. Beijing’s strategy is illustrated by Deng Xiaoping, who said that
China must “hide our capabilities and bide our time.” This statement explains a
lot about China’s tendency to ignore transparency requests and to simply wait
for an opportunity to assert itself.
In the report, an
item of major concern is Chinese missile development.
“The [People’s
Liberation Army] is acquiring large numbers of highly accurate cruise missiles,
many of which have ranges in excess of 185 km,” the report says. This includes
the DH-10 land-attack cruise missile, the ship-launch YJ-62 anti-ship cruise
missile and the Russian SS-N-22 Sunburn supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles.
Much of this
information is the same as from previous Pentagon reports.
The report also
mentions the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, dubbed the “aircraft carrier
killer,” but does not discuss how this type of missile might reshape U.S. naval
strategy and doctrine.
In another odd
section, the report says that China “may also be developing a new road-mobile
intercontinental ballistic missile, possibly capable of carrying a multiple
independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV).” Then the report drops the
issue from discussion. It does not explain the significance of a road-mobile
ICBM carrying MIRVed nuclear warheads, or what that potentially could mean to
the U.S. West Coast.
China is also
developing longrange stealthy aircraft capable of challenging U.S. air power
in the region.
The January flight
of China’s next-generation fighter prototype, the J-20, highlights China’s
ambition to produce a fighter aircraft that incorporates stealth attributes,
advanced avionics and supercruise capable engines over the next several
years.
The DoD report
plays down China’s first aircraft carrier, the refurbished ex-Soviet Varyag. No
mention is made of the strategic implications the carrier might have on the
Philippines and Vietnam with regard to the South China Sea.
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