Defense News
12/20/2011
All Eyes On North Korean Leadership Succession
By WENDELL MINNICK
TAIPEI - With the death of
North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, all eyes are on his son and heir, Kim Jong Un.
Kim Jong Il died of
"physical and mental overwork" according to North Korean propaganda
broadcasts. Although Kim had several heath problems, including a stroke in
2008, he appeared vibrant in recent meetings, said Bruce Klingner, a North
Korea specialist at the Heritage Foundation, Washington.
His death has been long
awaited by outside analysts and speculation has been rampant for years on how
his young son, reportedly in his late 20s, would transition to the top spot in
Pyongyang's opaque political decision making apparatus.
Kim Jong Un is a
"pale reflection" of his father and grandfather, Kim Il Sung,
Klingner said. "He has not had the decades of grooming and securing of a
power base that Jong Il enjoyed before assuming control from his own
father."
The person who will most
likely serve as a bridge between father and son is Kim Jong Il's
brother-in-law, Jang Song Thaek, who has long been in charge of the top
security agencies, said Bruce Cumings, a North Korea specialist at the
University of Chicago.
Cumings warned that the
U.S. media "constantly mistake this regime for a one-man dictatorship …
[when] in fact an entire generation of leaders rose in tandem with Kim Jong Il,
and they are now in power and have much privilege to protect, with Jong Un being
the key symbol of continuity and power."
Furthermore, a senior
generation guided the transition to both Jong Il and his son, and the ones
still alive are powerful leaders on the "most powerful body," the
National Defense Commission (NDC). "They may be octogenarians, but they
have a huge army behind them, and this is also one of the most patriarchal
societies in the world," Cumings said.
This does not mean that
Kim Jong Un's attempt to consolidate power will be smooth. If the party and the
military do not support him, the chances of the regime imploding or falling
into a variety of instability scenarios that could lead to collapse are at
least 50-50, said Bruce Bechtol, author of the book, "Defiant Failed
State: The North Korean Threat to International Security."
The big difference between
Kim Jong Un and his father is that when Kim Il Sung passed away in 1994, Kim
Jong Il was the second highest ranking member of the NDC, a leader in the
Organization and Guidance Department of the Party, a marshal in the Army, and in
charge of the North Korean security services, Bechtol said.
Not so with Kim Jong Un.
Although the son has been groomed for these positions, "he is not actually
in them," Bechtol said. "And thus, the succession process from father
to son is much more tenuous then it was in 1994."
What is certain is that
six-party talks on the country's nuclear program will stall as North Korea
works out leadership issues, said Zhuang Jianzhong, vice director of the Center
for National Strategy Studies at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, China. Prior to
the announcement of Kim Jong Il's death, media reports suggested that the U.S.
and North Korea had made preliminary agreements for the resumption of
multilateral nuclear negotiations.
Some Western analysts
argue that Kim Jong Un's early education in Switzerland will make him more
amenable to the West, but the North Korean elite has a vested interest in
maintaining the system and will assess Kim Jong Un's ability to protect their
interests, Klingner said. "The elite will balance a shared sense of
external threat against fear of domestic instability from an inexperienced
leader," he said.
"The senior
government leadership may assess Jong Un's shortcomings as sufficient
justification for contesting his succession. Elite resistance to Jong Un's rule
could manifest itself in outright opposition or in usurping his power and
leaving him a mere figurehead."
This could force Kim Jong
Un to become more bellicose towards South Korea and the U.S. by instigating a
crisis in order to generate a "rally around the flag effect," he
said.
That wouldn't necessarily
lead to war, Zhuang said. Kim Jong Un will be busy with domestic issues and
China will most likely have more influence over Kim Jong Un as both countries
continue to ramp up economic cooperation, he said.
In recent years, hundreds
if not thousands of markets - many joint ventures with foreign firms - have
opened, and there is a new export zone at Kaeson, which employees more than
40,000 North Koreans, Cumings said.
This could make for a
"happy ending" in the form of soft landing for this dictatorship,
more openings to the outside world and eventual decompression of
totalitarianism, Cumings said. However, he warned, "happy endings don't
have much meaning in North Korea."
