Defense News
11/21/2011
January
Election Could Reshape Taiwan Military
By WENDELL MINNICK
TAIPEI — Taiwan’s presidential
election in January could bring a shift in defense policy and a slow-down in
cross-Strait ties with China — that is, if the Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP) candidate, Tsai Ingwen, defeats the incumbent, President Ma Ying-jeou of
the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT).
A DPP insider and
former national security official said Tsai would consider a number of changes
to current defense policy, including giving the green light to production of
the 1,000-kilometer-range Hsiung Feng 2E Block 3 land-attack cruise missile.
Production began
in 2010 for the 600-kilometer range HF-2E Block 2, but Taiwan postponed
production of the Block 3 in 2008 due to pressure from the U.S. The Block 1 has
a range of 300 to 400 kilometers and only a few were produced for testing, the
DPP source said.
“The critical
issue for Tsai, if she becomes president, is whether she will order mass
production of the Block 3,” he said. “I will strongly advise Tsai to have an
intensive discussion with those working with China and the U.S. before going
forward.” This is a “crucial decision and can’t be taken lightly.” The election
is expected to be close; current polls place the candidates neck and neck.
Since Ma took
office in 2008, China and Taiwan have moved closer economically and
diplomatically. However, there has been some criticism that Ma has moved too
quickly to placate China and ignored national security matters.
China could react
negatively to a Tsai win, but few expect violence. China has threatened to use
force if Taiwan continues to resist unification, and the DPP has a history of
provocative independence language. However, Tsai has toned down such rhetoric
during her campaign and challenged China to reduce its military threat to
Taiwan as a sign of goodwill.
“Since I don’t
think the DPP will reverse the achievements of the KMT on the cross-Strait
issue, I don’t think the mainland side will be too nervous over prospects of a
DPP victory, though it’s obviously not the best news,” said Da Wei, director of
the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations in Beijing.
Maj. Gen. Zhu
“Tiger” Chenghu, director-general of China’s National Defense University,
cautioned that China’s military “reaction will be dependent on the behavior of
the DPP ... [Tsai] will have to consider the interests of her voters.”
A Tsai win in
January would no doubt give Beijing headaches, said Liu Fu-kuo, a cross-Strait
specialist at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University.
If Tsai aggravates
China too much, the most likely result would be “no further talks or
agreements,” Liu said. Beijing would simply ignore Taipei during her term as
president. The DPP also wants to modify Taiwan’s plans to implement an
allvolunteer military across all ranks. Instead, the DPP would continue
conscription except for officers and noncommissioned officers, who would be
volunteers, the DPP source said.
“The all-volunteer
system now being implemented will not work during a war,” he said.
Another change
from the current system, which includes conscripts, when a “green soldier”
joins a unit, he lowers the unit’s combat readiness, the source said.
But in the DPP’s
system, units would be formed on a cyclical basis so they train together as a
group. This is an “all-in or all-out” system, the DPP source said, and new
units would be formed five times a year to maintain consistency in combat
readiness.
Tsai would also
consider asking the U.S. to sell Taiwan refurbished short-takeoff,
vertical-landing (STOVL) AV-8B Harrier jump jets. The STOVL option would allow
Taiwan, should it go to war with China, to continue operating fighter jets
after runways are destroyed by China’s ballistic missile arsenal, which numbers
about 1,500 short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs).
However, the
Taiwan Air Force is not in favor of the AV-8B “because it is subsonic,” the DPP
source said.
Another option is
increasing the number of Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missile
batteries.
Taiwan has three
missile defense batteries equipped with PAC-2 Plus batteries, now being
upgraded to PAC-3 standards. Taiwan ordered another six PAC-3 batteries, which
will bring the total to nine missile defense batteries.
The DPP source
said Taiwan needs 12 missile defense batteries to defend itself against China’s
expanding SRBM threat.
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